Bibliografia para o modelo de gripe suína da Ariadne.
Recovering the time-dependent transmission rate from epidemiological data
(Submitted on 21 Jul 2009)
Abstract: The transmissibility of many infectious diseases varies significantly in time, but has been thought impossible to measure directly. We devise a mathematical algorithm to recover the time-dependent transmission rate from epidemiological data. We apply our algorithm to historic UK measles data and observe that for most cities the main spectral peak of the transmission rate has a two-year period. All previous models assumed that the transmission rate has one-year period. Our construction also illustrates the danger of overfitting an epidemic transmission model with a variable transmission rate function.
WKB theory of epidemic fade-out in stochastic populations
(Submitted on 30 Jun 2009)
Abstract: Stochastic effects may cause fade-out of an infectious disease in a population immediately after an epidemic outbreak. We develop WKB theory to determine the most probable path of the system toward epidemic fade-out, and to evaluate the fade-out probability. The most probable path is an instanton-like orbit in the phase space of the underlying Hamiltonian flow.