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sexta-feira, julho 24, 2009

Bibliografia para modelinho de gripe suína

Bibliografia para o modelo de gripe suína da Ariadne.

Recovering the time-dependent transmission rate from epidemiological data

Abstract: The transmissibility of many infectious diseases varies significantly in time, but has been thought impossible to measure directly. We devise a mathematical algorithm to recover the time-dependent transmission rate from epidemiological data. We apply our algorithm to historic UK measles data and observe that for most cities the main spectral peak of the transmission rate has a two-year period. All previous models assumed that the transmission rate has one-year period. Our construction also illustrates the danger of overfitting an epidemic transmission model with a variable transmission rate function.

Probabilistic discrete-time Markov chain approach to disease spreading in complex networks

Abstract: We present a new analytical formalism to study the spreading of diseases in complex networks. Our proposal differs from current studies based on mean-field approximations and focuses on the infection probability of individual nodes. We particularize on the Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible model. Within the new formalism, we construct the whole phase diagram of the system and recover well-known findings concerning the epidemic threshold. We compare the approach with intensive Monte Carlo (MC) simulations. Moreover, a new scaling law characterizing the dependence of the epidemic threshold with the frequency of contacts between neighbors is revealed. We illustrate the approach studying the disease spreading in the world-wide air transportation network.
Comments: 4 pages, 3 figures
Subjects: Computational Physics (physics.comp-ph); Physics and Society (physics.soc-ph)
Cite as: arXiv:0907.1313v1 [physics.comp-ph]

WKB theory of epidemic fade-out in stochastic populations

Abstract: Stochastic effects may cause fade-out of an infectious disease in a population immediately after an epidemic outbreak. We develop WKB theory to determine the most probable path of the system toward epidemic fade-out, and to evaluate the fade-out probability. The most probable path is an instanton-like orbit in the phase space of the underlying Hamiltonian flow.
Comments: 4 pages, 4 figures
Subjects: Populations and Evolution (q-bio.PE); Statistical Mechanics (cond-mat.stat-mech)
Cite as: arXiv:0906.5550v1 [q-bio.PE]

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