Epidemiologia e o paradoxo de Fermi
Cirkovic me cita neste review. Acho que preciso dar a forma final no paper e tentar publicar. Entretanto, estou atraido por uma nova hipótese baseada no modelo SIRS com automata celulares: usando idéias de epidemiologia para tratar a dinamica de colonização galactica, mostra-se que a galaxia é um meio excitável. O modelo SIRS prediz uma sequencia de epidemias galacticas. Para explicar o paradoxo de Fermi, basta supor que estamos vivendo entre duas ondas epidemicas de colonização galactica.
Fermi's Paradox - The Last Challenge for Copernicanism?
(Submitted on 20 Jul 2009)
We review Fermi's paradox (or the "Great Silence" problem), not only arguably the oldest and crucial problem for the Search for ExtraTerrestrial Intelligence (SETI), but also a conundrum of profound scientific, philosophical and cultural importance. By a simple analysis of observation selection effects, the correct resolution of Fermi's paradox is certain to tell us something about the future of humanity. Already a more than three quarters of a century old puzzle - and a quarter of century since the last major review paper in the field by G. David Brin - Fermi's paradox has generated many ingenious discussions and hypotheses. We analyze the often tacit methodological assumptions built into various answers to this puzzle and attempt a new classification of the numerous solutions proposed in an already huge literature on the subject. Finally, we consider the ramifications of various classes of hypotheses for the practical SETI projects. Somewhat paradoxically, it seems that the class of (neo)catastrophic hypotheses gives, on balance, the strongest justification for guarded optimism regarding our current and near-future SETI efforts.