terça-feira, outubro 06, 2009

Marina Silva e a colonização galática

Bom, uma alternativa é uma expansão em forma de lei de potência: N(t) = c t^\theta. Talveza se possa demonstrar que tal expansão seria economicamente sustentável. Interessante que isso corresponderia a um processo de ramificação crítico, que criaria uma expansão fractal, de modo que haveria bolhas não colonizadas de todos os tamanhos dentro da galáxia. E a minha solução para o Paradoxo de Fermi (que estamos dentro de uma dessas bolhas, e portanto não adianta fazer pesquisa SETI nas estrelas vizinhas) seria compativel com esse vínculo de expansão economicamente sustentável... Quem sabe os ETs (e nós no futuro) têm a mesma opinião da Marina Silva?

The Sustainability Solution to the Fermi Paradox

No present observations suggest a technologically advanced extraterrestrial intelligence (ETI) has spread through the galaxy. However, under commonplace assumptions about galactic civilization formation and expansion, this absence of observation is highly unlikely. This improbability is the heart of the Fermi Paradox. The Fermi Paradox leads some to conclude that humans have the only advanced civilization in this galaxy, either because civilization formation is very rare or because intelligent civilizations inevitably destroy themselves. In this paper, we argue that this conclusion is premature by introducing the "Sustainability Solution" to the Fermi Paradox, which questions the Paradox's assumption of faster (e.g. exponential) civilization growth. Drawing on insights from the sustainability of human civilization on Earth, we propose that faster-growth may not be sustainable on the galactic scale. If this is the case, then there may exist ETI that have not expanded throughout the galaxy or have done so but collapsed. These possibilities have implications for both searches for ETI and for human civilization management.
Comments:14 pages, PDF file
Subjects:Popular Physics (physics.pop-ph); Earth and Planetary Astrophysics (astro-ph.EP)
Journal reference:J.Br.Interplanet.Soc.62:47-51, 2009
Cite as:arXiv:0906.0568v1 [physics.pop-ph]

Persistence solves Fermi Paradox but challenges SETI projects

Osame Kinouchi (DFM-FFCLRP-Usp)
Persistence phenomena in colonization processes could explain the negative results of SETI search preserving the possibility of a galactic civilization. However, persistence phenomena also indicates that search of technological civilizations in stars in the neighbourhood of Sun is a misdirected SETI strategy. This last conclusion is also suggested by a weaker form of the Fermi paradox. A simple model of a branching colonization which includes emergence, decay and branching of civilizations is proposed. The model could also be used in the context of ant nests diffusion.
Comments:2 pages, no figures, v2 with corrected definition of branching ratio
Subjects:Disordered Systems and Neural Networks (cond-mat.dis-nn); Statistical Mechanics (cond-mat.stat-mech)
Cite as:arXiv:cond-mat/0112137v1 [cond-mat.dis-nn]

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